It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

The Russian academic Igor Panarin predicts that the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. The Wall Street Journal reports:

He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

California will form the nucleus of what he calls “The Californian Republic,” and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of “The Texas Republic,” a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an “Atlantic America” that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls “The Central North American Republic.” Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.

In case you weren’t sure which Northern states might be joining Canada, there’s a map at the end of the article. As much as I’d like to be able to drive over to Seattle without stopping for border control, that apparently isn’t in the books. On the other hand, those northern states seem to stretch quite far south, all the way to Missouri, Colorado, and yes, Kansas.

But, seeing as Panarin has access to all that classified geopolitical information, hasn’t anyone informed him of the imminent breakup of Canada? How Quebec is a “distinct nation”, or something like it, will some sort of a sovereignty spectre always hovering above its politics? Or how western provinces, Alberta in particular, would like to enjoy their own well-being without having to make transfer payments?

Should that happen, I suppose that western Canada will be joining forces with Montana, Wyoming and Colorado. Ontario, of course, will enter into an alliance with Ohio and Michigan – possibly even with Minnesota and Wisconsin, if they behave themselves. Quebec? Unfortunately it does not share a border with any of the newly available territories, but hey, it doesn’t share one with France, either.

Happy New Year! May we all live in less interesting times.


Filed under politics

2 responses to “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

  1. I have a prediction that after all the changes and reforms of the 90s, Russia will be ruled by a militaristic autocrat without a hint of respect for democracy, freedom of the press or human dignity in general… Oh wait… that already happened!

  2. Niel

    Joining the EU would be madness for the “Atlantic” states: oceans really put a damper on the free-flow of international trade. They would be better off forming some sort of economic partnership, possibly even a federation, with the other resulting small republics in North America. Oh, wait…

    Ironically, the break-up of the United States would be one of the few conditions under which I would warmly welcome a North American union: it would be much easier to have an equal partnership of eight or so countries, with openly debated tensions between them, than a partnership of the existing three as they currently exist.